Friday, December 23, 2022

CPEC GWADAR:

HISTORY:

The idea of CPEC has a history as the dialogues of bridging Pakistan’s deep-water ports on Arabian Sea with Chinese Border began in1950s. The construction of Karakoram Highway and Gwadar in 2006 was a part of this notion. The formal talks on CPEC and its initial sketch were materialized in the Parvez Musharraf’s era but could not progress on the grounds of political instability. Zardari’s led, Pakistan People’s Party’s government proposed it again, although it was formally launched during Nawaz Sharif’s led Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)’s government in 2015.

Why did China specifically invest in Pakistan? and how much invest in Pakistan?

  •    The China-Pakistan Economic corridor, commonly known as CPEC is the bystander of the finest friendly relationship between Pakistan and China.
  •    It is a fateful project under which a huge network of roads and highways, infrastructure and energy sector related construction is under progress, costing $46 billion, invested by People’s Republic of China in Pakistan.
  •    This project is often subjected as a strategic game changer for Pakistan’s economy along with entire region.
  •     CPEC is an extravagant extension of China’s maestro ideology of One Belt, One Road.
  •   OBOR is a proposition objected to connect with different countries through road and railway network to revel in massive trade breaks There are total 6 corridors that have to be built under OBOR stratagem of China from which CPEC is one of them.
  •    CPEC embraces a significant scope in China’s 13th five-year plan. According to estimations, China imports 60% of the total oil of Middle East countries. It has to use a longer route that costs China a huge amount of money and time. Excessive travelling costs and delivery time provide a major break to China’s competitors in trade that may include Japan, USA etc.
  •    It hampers China’s performance to compete in global market arena. This economic corridor is designed to connect Pakistan through its Gwadar Port to the autonomous region of Xinjiang in the North-West China through the huge road, highway and railway networks. It will also connect Pakistan to the fast growing and vibrant markets of Middle East, Africa and Europe; and will generate enormous trade opportunities for the country.
  •   CPEC divides into two routes, Eastern and Western, from Islamabad Motorway (M1) that connect Gwadar Port to Western region of China. The network of roads and highways through both the routes do not only connect Gwadar Port with China but also renovate the intramural road map of Pakistan.
  •     Using the CPEC route for its oil imports from middle east and for trade of other goods, China can save a huge chunk of time and money.
  •    This is the main reason for China to invest in a country like Pakistan that is already facing enormous challenges within country and on its border line too.
  •   The significance of CPEC is remarkable as its impacts on development and growth of both the countries, Pakistan and China, will change the fate of entire region. Its socioeconomic impacts on Pakistan have started to emerge with the generation of employment opportunities for its citizens though.

 Full capacity of Gwadar port:

Gwadar port is being built in phases. When completed, it will have three 200-meter-long berths and one Ro-Ro (roll on-roll off) facility. At present the port has the capacity to handle 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) bulk carriers drawing up to 12.5 meters.

Balochistan region:

The CPEC has not benefited the people of Balochistan while people of other provinces enjoy the fruits of the mega project. This has led to widespread protests as the Chinese are viewed as encroachers who are squeezing out all the wealth from the region. This has resulted in a surge in the deadly attacks by Baloch separatists on CPEC facilities.

Balochistan has been at the crossroad of conquerors and invaders throughout the ages. The strategic importance of corridor cannot be fully gauged without analyzing to that with perspective of the province of Baluchistan. Balochistan itself carries huge amount of minerals and natural resources such as oil and gas . In analyzing it clash of interests between the following must be looked into:

•       Iran

•       Afghanistan

•       India

•       China

•       America

•       Europe, Russia& Japan

        Pakistan desperately needs to pay attention to improve security situation to fully attract Chinese counterpart and exploit to the fullest the true potential of the corridor. Due to security problem, China withdrew its investments worth $12 billion from Gwadar in 2009.  Law and order situation can be major impediment to develop this corridor.














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Friday, December 16, 2022

WHY NATIONS FAIL By Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (CHAPTER 7)

 

THE TURNING POINT

TROUBLE WITH STOCKINGS

In “Trouble with Stockings,” Acemoglu and Robinson explain how the English priest William Lee invented a knitting machine in 1589. But Queen Elizabeth I and King James I both denied him a patent because they worried that it would put knitters out of business.

Two hundred years after Lee showed the queen and king his invention, similar textile machines drove the Industrial Revolution. Acemoglu and Robinson’s point is clear: England couldn’t industrialize in the 16th century because its political institutions weren’t inclusive enough. In fact, similar processes prevented industrialization all over the world for many centuries. Had other countries developed institutions like England’s, the authors imply, they would have been able to industrialize much earlier.

Acemoglu and Robinson repeatedly emphasize that historical events always depend on earlier events. Thus, while the Magna Carta and formation of Parliament couldn’t create inclusive institutions on their own, they did make it easier for England to develop these institutions later on, since they put checks on the monarchy’s power and made it possible for diverse groups to have a voice in the English government.

The War of the Roses actually began as elite infighting under extractive institutions: the aristocracy and monarchy both wanted more power for themselves. However, neither side won outright, so England had to form a kind of hybrid government that balanced power between the Crown and Parliament. In fact, precisely because it had to balance power in this way, the English government was already taking crucial first steps toward inclusiveness. The first step to building inclusive institutions, then, can simply be for multiple competing groups to win a meaningful voice in the government. Acemoglu and Robinson also return in this section to the crucial concept of centralization. Readers are likely to associate it with absolutism, probably because dictators often try to expand their power and impose it as widely as they can. However, the authors emphasize that centralization is really just the expansion of the state, so it isn’t always associated with absolutism. In Henry VIII’s case, centralization actually backfired: he wanted to increase his own power, but instead, he increased the state’s overall power while decreasing his control over the state.

Parliament’s anti-monopoly rules were fundamentally selfish: they were designed to help the merchant elite increase its profits. Of course, Charles I also clearly wanted to increase his own power and profits. Thus, Parliament wasn’t inching England toward inclusive institutions because it believed in democracy or pluralism. Instead, it did so because it had to gradually take power away from the king in order to pursue its own interests. This naturally created a more balanced, less concentrated system of power. Parliament also could have tried to overthrow the king and set up an extractive dictatorship of its own but it wasn’t powerful or unified enough to do so.

England’s transformation from extractive to inclusive institutions was a long process that unfolded slowly over the course of many decades. Parliament used its limited power over revenue to sabotage the king’s war effort. This shows how even slightly pluralistic institutions can stop absolutism by checking leaders’ power. Meanwhile, the English Civil War wasn’t merely a conflict between two different factions: it was also a fight between two different visions of government. Of course, the Parliamentarians didn’t intend on extending power to commoners, women, or really anyone but themselves. However, their victory still created more pluralistic institutions because they at least divided power between multiple groups.

The Glorious Revolution definitively tipped the balance of power away from the monarchy and toward Parliament. However, this didn’t necessarily have to make England more pluralistic instead, Parliament could have banded together to impose new extractive institutions on the country. One reason this didn’t happen was that Parliament was made up of businessmen who engaged in international trade, competed with one another, and cared more about protecting their property and wealth than about taking power for themselves. In fact, the authors suggest that representative bodies like Parliament are generally more likely to create pluralistic institutions because they represent multiple groups whose interests don’t align.

Acemoglu and Robinson again stress that political institutions don’t have to include everyone or be truly egalitarian in order to create economic prosperity. Instead, they just need to be inclusive enough that their members choose a competitive market over monopolies. The wealthy men who dominated the English Parliament stood to benefit more from competition than monopolies, so they chose to create inclusive economic institutions. In turn, Acemoglu and Robinson argue, such competitive markets make political institutions more egalitarian over time. Moreover, because Parliament was theoretically supposed to represent the people, petitions could have some effect on its decisions. Thus, the Glorious Revolution gave commoners a proverbial foot in the door of politics they didn’t have true representation, but their concerns were at least heard, and when they banded together, they had a certain amount of political power.

Again, just like pluralism, centralization and the expansion of the state were crucial to building inclusive institutions. This is because they allowed the state to actually enforce its decisions. Thus, while tax bureaucracy might seem like an irrelevant topic, it was actually an important political tool in 17th and 18th century England because it helped Parliament collect taxes as fairly as possible. In turn, Parliament was able to fund the country’s pro-business activities and establish the rule of law (which is the idea that the law applies to everyone, thereby preventing elites from abusing their power).

Parliament didn’t invest in transportation and privatize land because it wanted to help enrich the whole population rather, it did so to increase profits for its members and their close allies. However, Parliament represented a wide range of businessmen and not just a tiny group of oligarchs. Therefore, the best way to protect their profits was not by using the state’s power to gift them land, resources, and labor (like in post-independence Mexico), but by protecting their equal rights to participate in a competitive market.

While protectionist policies made the market less competitive internationally, they made it more competitive domestically. English textile manufacturers therefore had a strong incentive to grow, which is why they eagerly adopted industrial technologies. Translating this into the language of Acemoglu and Robinson’s theory, inclusive economic institutions created an inclusive and competitive market. Private property rights let entrepreneurs reap the benefits of their investments, and a level legal and economic playing field allowed the best products and firms to succeed. In other words, the competitive market incentivized innovations.

The Industrial Revolution highlights how inclusive economic institutions spur innovation and growth by protecting intellectual property. While the German political system punished and stifled innovation, the English patent system encouraged and rewarded it. By protecting Watt’s patent rights, England empowered him to spread his invention as widely as possible and rewarded him for doing so. What’s more, by protecting other inventors’ patents, too, the English government made it possible for Watt to learn about their inventions and build on them. This same effect rapidly improved loom technology, too: inventors knew they would receive credit and profit for their individual contributions, so they could freely work together and build off of one another’s ideas.

Strong property rights and an equal economic playing field let virtually any English male take up trades like roadbuilding. These inclusive economic institutions rewarded whoever did the best job, not whoever had the most power or access. In fact, effective amateurs replacing lackluster professionals and wool factories replacing domestic weavers are both classic examples of creative destruction. In both cases, new technologies made old ones obsolete. While this disrupted old social arrangements and put many people out of work, it ultimately made the economy more efficient and productive.

Again, while they didn’t include everyone (or even most of society), inclusive political institutions in England made it possible for more people to gain political rights over time. But this was primarily because of the inclusive economic institutions they created. The Industrial Revolution enriched new classes of people, allowing the basic conflict behind the Glorious Revolution to repeat itself: new aristocrats demanded and seized power for themselves, which made the political system a little bit more inclusive, too.

English history supports Acemoglu and Robinson’s theory of economic change: political changes during critical junctures created inclusive political institutions, which built inclusive economic institutions, which in turn spurred innovation and generated sustainable economic growth. If other nations had built the right institutions earlier in history, the authors suggest, they might have been able to industrialize in the same way.

As in every society, in 17th century England, conflict over power was the engine behind political change. While Acemoglu and Robinson argue that different groups are always competing for power, including the masses and the elite, the masses didn’t take power in the Glorious Revolution. Instead, a pluralistic group of elites did. However, this shift moved English institutions far enough toward inclusiveness that it built inclusive economic institutions in the short term and an egalitarian democracy in the long term.

Like everything in history, the Glorious Revolution was contingent it depended on human decisions, earlier historical events, and the small institutional differences they created. In other words, were it not for the Black Death, the Roman Empire, or even the defeat of the Spanish Armada, the Glorious Revolution might not have happened, and the Industrial Revolution might not have kicked off in England.

 


Friday, December 2, 2022

WHY NATIONS FAIL By Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (CHAPTER 6)

 

DRIFTING APART

HOW VENICE BECAME A MUSEUM

In the section “How Venice Became a Museum,” Acemoglu and Robinson explain how, starting around 800, Venice became “possibly the richest place in the world” by trading with growing European empires and building inclusive economic institutions. Venice’s rise shows how economic and political institutions build on each other in a positive feedback cycle. The city’s inclusive laws helped its economy grow, and this growth gave non-elite Venetians the power to make their political system more inclusive, too. The city was then able to pass even more inclusive economic laws. In particular, the commenda system was an inclusive economic institution because it gave young entrepreneurs the opportunity to build wealth and capital over time. Of course, like in virtually all other societies before the 20th century, Venice didn’t include everyone in politics or the economy, but it was still relatively inclusive because it didn’t reserve wealth and power for an exclusive group of elites.

Venice’s history shows that a nation’s luck can abruptly turn. This is an important reminder about the “contingency” of history: people decide the fate of their own societies, not destiny. After all, Acemoglu and Robinson emphasize that elites and the masses are always fighting overpower, which means that societies can always become either more inclusive or more extractive (depending on which side wins). In Venice, the elites got the upper hand. They rolled back all of the Great Council’s reforms and ended Venice’s inclusiveness.

This chapter returns to key questions about how and why institutions transform. The short answer is that people change them. It’s especially likely that people will transform institutions during periods of great historical change. What’s more, the state of institutions at these moments of change has a huge impact on their future as either inclusive or extractive societies. Venice, for instance, ended up becoming more of a museum than a powerful economic hub because its institutions had become extractive when the Industrial Revolution hit. In contrast, despite its long history as a backwater, England ended up driving the Industrial Revolution because it had the right kind of institutions at the right time.

Venice and the Roman Empire rose as they became more inclusive and fell as they became more extractive. This shows that, even though inclusive institutions tend to reinforce themselves, elites often try to dismantle (break down) them and create extractive institutions instead. Thus, the authors imply that citizens in inclusive nations should never let down their guard by assuming their institutions are safe.

The murder of Tiberius Gracchus might initially seem unusual because, as the authors have repeatedly argued, extractive institutions tend to cause political infighting not inclusive ones. Rome’s political institutions were relatively inclusive because, although they were by no means egalitarian, they were somewhat pluralistic. In other words, Roman institutions represented multiple groups, even if they didn’t represent everyone. The archaeological evidence suggests that these institutions promoted economic growth, which supports the authors’ overall thesis about institutions causing prosperity.

Despite Rome’s relatively inclusive political institutions, its economic institutions became more extractive over time, especially outside of the capital. As the authors argued in their second chapter, this kind of contradiction between inclusive and extractive institutions tends to cause unrest and transformation, until all the institutions become either inclusive or extractive. Rome went down the latter path. In fact, Gracchus’s murder was part of the elite campaign to make political institutions more extractive and prop up the extractive economic institutions that preserved their privilege.

As in Venice, Roman elites won out over the masses and established increasingly extractive institutions the Empire to benefit themselves. Again, this shows that institutions don’t always move in one direction. Rather, history is contingent. People’s decisions, historical conditions, and sheer luck can lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Acemoglu and Robinson’s hypothesis about why there was no serious, sustained economic growth anywhere in the world between the Neolithic Revolution and the Industrial Revolution. The rulers knew that innovations would replace existing technologies, causing rapid economic growth but also disrupting the existing social and economic order. Emperors and their allies rejected these innovations because the status already benefited them, while they stood to lose if someone else’s technology became essential to the functioning of society. Therefore, under strict extractive institutions, innovations could never get the traction they needed to spread, transform the economy, and start widespread growth.

The Roman Empire’s complex financial tools were really economic institutions. They gave Romans although just a small number of them the tools that they needed in order to buy and sell goods in a marketplace with others. But the Empire’s withdrawal shows how this kind of market relies on the state: it cannot exist unless the government creates institutions to protect it. Thus, when the Roman Empire retreated, England’s economy didn’t stagnate it declined.

Acemoglu and Robinson use England’s historical lack of technological and economic sophistication to emphasize the contingency of history. Its dominance wasn’t destined rather, it was the result of other earlier historical events, plus a large dose of good luck.

Ethiopia is an important case study because it followed a very similar trajectory to Western Europe, despite the fact that Ethiopia is almost completely isolated from Western Europe. Therefore, any similarities between Ethiopia and Western Europe’s trajectories must surely come from overlaps in their institutions, not historical links between the two regions. In both cases, major expansionist empires with highly centralized power structures collapsed, creating critical junctures that produced similar effects in both societies.

The authors conclude that pre-18th century institutions had an important influence on the Industrial Revolution, although they certainly didn’t ensure that it would happen. This is an important part of historical contingency: earlier events set the stage for later ones that actually determine the outcome of history. Older institutions made it possible for merchants to build inclusive institutions during the Industrial Revolution and launch economic growth in England and the US, but these people still had to actually build these institutions.

 

 


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